If you’ve turned on the news at all recently there are two things you’ve more than likely seen; stats about COVID-19 and photos of Russian military build-up on the border of Ukraine. It shouldn’t be a surprise that Ukraine has been going through an ongoing conflict specifically in the Donbas or Eastern region of Ukraine since 2014. Things had seemed to have calmed with several negotiated ceasefires in 2020 but 2021 had seen an increase in. tensions.
In fact, the first three months of 2021 were quite deadly for Ukraine with authorities reporting 25 Ukrainian soldiers being killed in the conflict zone which is significant as in 2020 there were a totally of 50 casualties. On the other side, the Ombudsman of the DPR, they reported 85 soldiers and 30 civilians killed in the first half of 2021.
The rise of tensions attracted the interest of the Russian military who began moving large quantities of arms and equipment from Western and Central Russia between March and April of 2021. They moved the arms and equipment into occupied Crimea and Voronezh and Rostov oblasts of Russia. It is believed there were fourteen Russian military units from the Central Military District sitting at the border making it the largest unannounced military movement since the 2014 invasion of Crimea. By April 9, 2021, the head of the Ukrainian border guard estimated that 85,000 Russian soldiers were already in Crimea or within 40 kilometres (25 miles) of the Ukrainian border.
Russia has issued statements that the increased Russian Military buildup poses no threat but have also warned that the Russian military could act to defend Russian citizens in Ukraine and “any escalation of the Donbas conflict would mean the beginning of the end of Ukraine” as well as “not a shot in the leg, but in the face”. It is also worth noting that half a million people in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic had been issued Russian passports by 2021 since the initiative started in 2014.
All of this has of course pushed Ukraine to begin its own buildup of military arms and equipment. In April 2021, Ukraine demonstrated by performing the first operational rollout of Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 military drones in the Donbas region. In November 2021, they used a Bayraktar drone behind the line of contact to destroy a separatist artillery piece while it was firing on Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian troops push through and regained control of the village of Staromarivka in grey zone. The Russian government reported unease from the development of the increased drone use, warning that further usage of the Bayraktar TB2 in the Donbas could “destabilize the situation” in the region. Ukraine has refused to stop using the drones which are proving to be an effective tool.
In the past few weeks, Russia has continued amassing more military personnel and equipment near the border with estimates of soldiers now believed to be over 100,000. On the other hand, Ukraine has reached out to its allies and is buying arms and equipment in droves. The UK has been an outspoken supporter of Ukraine and has been sending several shipments of anti-tank guided missiles. The Czechs have opened their borders to Ukrainian civilians seeking shelter and have advised military assistance is not off the table. NATO has also begin moving additional ships and fighter jets to Eastern Europe within range of the conflict. Where will it all lead? No one really knows but tensions are certainly high.
