For those unfamiliar Ethiopia has been at war since last year. This is a conflict that originally started as a small internal issue which has sparked into a full out civil war. The Tigray War began on November 3rd, 2020 in the Tigray region of Ethiopia due to ongoing tensions over ethnic and regional based power struggles. To understand this conflict, you must first understand the basic history of Ethiopia.
Today, Ethiopia is divided up into a bunch of semi-autonomous regions with one being called Tigray which happens to compose about 6% of the population but has long wielded significant power in Ethiopian politics. Following the end of the Ethiopian Civil War in 1991, the country became a dominant-party state under the rule of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front. This group is a coalition of ethnically-based parties that are dominated by the Tigray People’s liberation Front (TPLF). The founding and most influential member of the TPLF was the chairperson, Meles Zenawi, who was the prime minister of Ethiopia until he died in 2012.
In April 2018, the TPLF, which up until was the most powerful party, was removed from power in the federal government due to a growing discontent within the public and 27 years of repression. All of the TPLF officials relocated to Tigray and continued to administer the region, often clashing with the new federal government. This ranged from heated debates in political forums to refusing to allow Ethiopian Federal Police into Tigray. Tensions further grew when prime minister Abiy Ahmed tried to merge the TPLF along with other opposition parties into the new Prosperity Party. The TPLF refused the merger causing further rifts with the government and further isolating them.
Things got really heated when in September 2020, the federal government refused to recognize the elections for Tigray’s state council due to COVID-19 pandemic. The federal government believed the election to be illegal and slashed federal funding to the region. The Ethiopian government then moved elite units near Asmara as part of a “security pact” and to “strike out of existence the TPLF”. This act pushed the TPLF to brace for war. On November 3rd, 2020. The Tigray Special Forces (TDF) and Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) came into conflict during the TPLF attacks on the ENDF Northern Command headquarters.
It should also be noted that the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) have approximately 100,000 active personnel, although this figure has sometimes been quoted as around 200,000 personnel. Keep in mind, the entire population of the Tigray region is approximately 7 million people prior to the conflict while the population of the rest of Ethiopia is estimated at 110 million (excluding Tigray). There have been several other factions that have joined Tigray in fighting such as the Somali State Resistance, Kimant Democratic Party, and Gambella People’s Liberation Army which have bolstered their numbers. Ethiopia has also had assistance from Djibouti, Somalia and United Arab Emirates (supposedly).
The TDF also face equipment issues and mostly focus on fighting via conventional guerilla warfare ideology. Ethiopia on the other hand a has a trained professional army with ground forces and an air force. The Ethiopian government has also deployed the Ethiopian Federal Police to fight alongside the military. So why is Ethiopia not able to crush the Tigray Defense Forces?
Well largely because at this point they are fighting an insurgency. The Tigray Defense Forces don’t have all the tanks or armoured equipment, aircraft or even anti-aircraft equipment, and they might not have equal manpower either. But that doesn’t matter, because they are able to utilize guerilla warfare with a devastating effect. In fact, the TDF has been so successful that they have pushed deep into federal-controlled territory. In early November 2021, this caused the Ethiopian government to declare a six-month state of emergency. They have also requested residents register their weapons and prepare to fend off a Tigray attack. While the Ethiopian government continues to alienate the public and fight an expensive war with aircraft, the Tigray Defense Forces utilize cheap guerilla warfare striking on counterattacks. The TDF is also winning the hearts and minds of the public which is causing a morale shift in their favor.
The situation is so dire now that Ethiopian is on the verge, if it isn’t already, of becoming a failed state. The government is having a hard time delivering basic services to the public and to make matters worse a famine is in sight. The Ethiopian government is now fighting a war on multiple fronts, and losing battles is crushing their spirits while the TDF seem to be riding their success in battle.
